Prepare Now for an Election Firestorm

As the U.S. presidential campaign takes a violent turn, colleges and universities need to prepare for major political upheaval and campus disruptions. Last academic year’s campus protests demonstrated that much of higher education is ill-equipped to handle certain political controversies.

But the fall will not just be a redux of the spring. When students return to campuses, the wild presidential campaign will be entering the final stretch, setting the stage for disruptions that will accelerate through the end of the semester and possibly beyond. The forecast is grim, and the conditions are ripe, not for a flare-up but for an inferno.

As the political climate heats up, campus leaders must fully develop policies, programming and contingency plans for the next academic year, which is shaping up to be even more turbulent than the one we just concluded.

The pro-Palestinian protests, which received external support, are likely to reboot in the fall as Israel becomes bogged down in urban warfare and the humanitarian crisis deepens. Yet the campus protests surrounding the 2024 election could be much more widespread, and college leaders should not discount the possibility that the situation could surpass the disruptions of this spring. Donald Trump’s 2016 victory shocked a lot of college students and created a good deal of anxiety. A 2024 victory could make them apoplectic.

Colleges should begin planning for a possible second Trump term now, as polls show him extending his lead over Biden. If the Democrats manage to hang on to the presidency, the margins in key battleground states would likely be razor-thin, and Trump would contest the results in the states he loses. The certification process—which would likely involve some recounts—could stretch through final exams and winter commencements. There is no world in which Biden (or a replacement candidate) wins so decisively that Trump picks up his ball and goes home rather than going down fighting.

If the Democratic nominee wins, expect widespread unrest through the end of the semester as the election results are contested and certified. If Trump wins, expect the unrest to carry into the spring semester, when Trump is inaugurated and begins issuing dozens of controversial executive orders.

The coming conflagration could make the recent events seem like a campfire in comparison. Expect “not my president” protests and demands that universities and departments issue statements. Expect pressure to ban certain organizations and student groups, defund programs, and disinvite speakers. Expect harassment of students who don or display political paraphernalia. And if Trump wins, expect a new wave of protests demanding that colleges fight back against Trump executive orders, especially on immigration and the environment. Do not be surprised to see renewed demands for colleges to divest from oil companies and weapons manufacturers.

Exogenous forces and secondary events are likely to dump gas on the fire. Foreign actors will weaponize social media to spread misinformation and whip students into a frenzy. Hate crimes, threats and provocations, and tit-for-tat violence are likely and will create cascading protests and counterprotests. Many students who remain on the periphery of protests will experience stress and anxiety from the election results and from the aftershocks on campus.

Colleges that fail to prepare now will be caught flat-footed. Presidents, faculty and administrators should not only prepare for disruptions but also work to foster a healthy learning environment where students may fully participate in the academic and civic missions of their institution. Students must be taught that the core purpose of college is not activism, but learning. Though students have certain First Amendment rights, especially at state institutions, the university is not a public square.

Faculty and administrators should regularly remind students that the freedom of speech ultimately serves the academic mission of college: to seek the truth together through rigorous yet respectful discourse using logic and evidence, not passions and talking points. Speech that coerces rather than persuades is antithetical to reasonable discourse and the academic mission of the university. Students cannot shout and listen at the same time. Neither can they simultaneously chant and reason. The academy is a forum, not a platform.

Colleges should pursue five strategies to shore up civil discourse and cultivate a healthy learning community this fall.

1. First, colleges should review and update policies on speech, demonstrations and events. Senior leaders should especially examine time, place and manner restrictions on expression and develop plans for how to consistently enforce those policies when students attempt to push boundaries—because they will. These rules should be clearly and regularly communicated to students.
2. Second, presidents and trustees should also craft a coherent policy on institutional or presidential speech and set expectations accordingly. Institutions like DePauw University and the University of California, Irvine, are leading the way. Colleges and universities should seek to stay above the political fray, and presidents should only weigh in on issues directly impacting the mission of the institution.
3. Third, campus leaders should run tabletop exercises to spot weaknesses in policies and stress-test their procedures and decision-making structures. They should prepare contingency plans for a variety of scenarios and decide in advance how to handle disruptions. As we have seen, the failure to enforce campus policies incentivizes further rules violations and makes it much more difficult for administrators to re-establish order without overcorrecting and generating massive blowback. Colleges have contingency plans for severe weather, bomb threats and other emergencies. They should also develop plans for protests and disruptions.

4. Fourth, campus leaders should set the tone on day one of the fall semester and work to cultivate a healthy discursive culture. First-year orientation should feature mandatory programming on free expression rights and responsibilities. Senior administrators—including the president—as well as faculty should model civil discourse for their students in events that showcase good-faith, respectful disagreement on issues and candidates. Colleges should educate students on campus speech, encourage them to participate in the academic enterprise of higher education and equip them with the capacity to engage with curiosity, humility, respect and intellectual rigor.
5. Fifth, administrators and faculty should support and partner with students. Students have been primed by both the political left and the political right to think that the fate of America—their future—hangs on the results of the election. Students will need both civics education and mental health support as they come to grips with election news and on-campus aftershocks. Administrators and faculty should identify and train student leaders and partner with key student organizations to promote constructive dialogue and prepare programming for both before and after the election. The purpose of these efforts should not be to coddle students but to develop civic skills and equip them to be resilient in the face of profound disagreement and disappointment.

Colleges should begin implementing these strategies over the remainder of the summer, because leaders will be put to the test in the months ahead. What is at stake is not merely whether presidents keep their jobs and colleges survive an election year without further damage to their already battered reputations. The academic and civic missions of higher education are on the line.

Will colleges, tossed about by political tumult, become places where students learn to either despise American civic life or embrace protest and disruption as the highest form of political engagement? Or will colleges be havens of reason, sanity and rigorous yet respectful debate, where students learn the dispositions and skills for civic life in this pluralistic country? All of college is a classroom. Campus leaders should begin preparing the lesson plan for the fall.