Enrollment Cliff, Meet Longevity Boom

Two seismic demographic shifts are combining to create a unique opportunity for higher education leaders. By 2034, people over the age of 65 are expected to outnumber those under 18 for the first time in U.S. history. The longevity boom and pending enrollment cliff pose a tremendous opportunity to rethink American assumptions about a conventional three-stage life course—learn, work, retire—and to innovate our higher education institutions to meet the needs of a new fourth stage.

With more than 11,000 baby boomers turning 65 every day, the shift is already upon us. So, what are the unique opportunities this shift represents for higher education, and how can higher education institutions position themselves to take advantage of them? Better yet, how are colleges and universities already uniquely positioned to adapt and thrive in this new demographic environment?

Adapting to the Longevity Boom

Half of children born today are likely to become centenarians. However, every aspect of today’s society has been built on the assumption of a much shorter life. Future-oriented universities are responding. In 2018, the Stanford Center on Longevity developed the New Map of Life initiative, which lays a research foundation for leaders and policymakers to reimagine every stage of the life course. In 2019, Arizona State University established its Learning Enterprise, an institutionwide division that disrupts the traditional design of the university and creates pathways for non-credential-seeking learners at every life stage.

A four-year degree is no longer sufficient to span the learning needs of our extended lifetimes. We also live in an era of global disruption at unprecedented speeds. It took 26 years for 25 percent of the U.S. population to use the television, whereas it took less than one year for a quarter of the population to adopt ChatGPT. At this rate of change, we all need to become lifelong learners in order to adapt, thrive and remain engaged, informed citizens. This is the new higher education imperative.

Seizing the Economic Opportunity

It’s not just longer life spans. Consumer tastes have also evolved. Baby boomers have shown an insatiable demand for more learning and engagement in their retirements, backed by more spending power than any previous generation. Products, services and experiences that resonate with this consumer group—who want a more learning-centered, engaged and purpose-filled retirement—are in short supply.

Today’s retirees are repurposing their skills and accumulated experiences to pursue more socially impactful “encore careers,” launch start-ups or revive areas of interest that may have been impractical or impossible to pursue in their earlier years. In 2019, approximately 25 percent of new entrepreneurs were between 55 and 64 years of age, about a 10-percentage-point increase from 20 years earlier. Our stale cultural narrative about the life course has failed to catch up with reality.

The economist Andrew J. Scott predicts that, in the new longevity economy, “the most valuable products and services will be those that support healthy, productive, longer lives.” This is higher education’s opportunity.

Scott estimates that every additional year of life expectancy is worth $38 trillion in economic impact. Failing to get the most out of longer lives has enormous economic implications. No institution, industry, sector or nation can afford to watch and wait to see how this plays out. Especially not higher ed.

Age-Inclusive Models

Fortunately, higher education institutions are well positioned to repurpose their existing assets, offerings and identities to serve a more age-diverse community of learners and drive broad community benefit.

A groundswell movement toward a more age-inclusive vision of higher education has led to initiatives such as the 2012 founding of the Age-Friendly University Global Network. Now representing more than 100 colleges and universities worldwide, the network’s members commit to fostering a longevity mindset in higher education. The network’s 10 principles speak to priorities including integrating older adults into the core activities of the university, promoting intergenerational learning and supporting learning needed for second careers.

Three trending models stand out in the North American context over the last two decades.

First are midlife transition programs. Pioneered by Harvard and Stanford Universities, they grant non-credential-seeking older adult learners access to university assets and experiences to navigate their life transitions in “second adulthood” (ages 50 to 75). Small cohorts complete a curriculum to retool their skills and rebuild their identities and purpose. Some variations of this model include a requirement to deliver on a social impact project, engage with students, take university courses or attend field trips. Costs are usually commensurate with a year of tuition at the institution, ranging from $25,000 to $80,000, not including housing expenses to live near campus, with few emerging lower-cost models. NEXEL Collaborative is a nonprofit coalition of about two dozen higher education institutions that offer or are interested in offering midlife transition programs.

Second, the term university-based retirement community (UBRC) describes a senior living community that is co-located on a college campus (ideally within one mile) and that has a formal arrangement with the university to grant residents access to campus amenities and experiences such as course auditing and athletics and arts events. Ideally, these communities provide a continuum of care from independent living to assisted living, memory care and skilled nursing. UBRC costs can range from $200,000 to more than $1 million for the one-time entrance fee, plus a monthly fee ranging from $1,800 to $10,000 that covers dining, housekeeping, programming and other amenities.

One example of a UBRC is Mirabella at Arizona State University, a 20-story high-rise continuing-care retirement community with 238 independent living units and 58 health-care units located on ASU’s main campus. With an average resident age of 76 years old, 80 percent of whom have at least a master’s degree, the model demonstrates the mutual benefit of immersing retirees into the campus community as learners and valued contributors. Residents are issued student IDs and, thanks largely to their location on campus, easily and consistently engage in and become recognized and valued parts of the campus community.

The inclusion of older adults in work-integrated learning models is another promising innovation. In 2023, Co-operative and Experiential Education (CEE) at the University of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada, expanded its reach by integrating older adults in midlife—individuals at career transition points—into their offerings. CEE’s pilot program targeted these older adults, emphasizing purpose, proximity and problem-solving to foster intergenerational collaboration and tackle social challenges.

What is common across all of these models is the intentional integration of older adults into the university ecosystem as fully affiliated members of the campus community. In all cases, the goal is much more than to extend learning offerings to older adults. These models exemplify the value of leveraging the university as a place for transforming and thriving in life transitions through learning and meaningful engagement. This is notably distinct from more widely recognized lifelong learning models, which tend to be age-segregated learning offerings for older adults.

Admittedly, these efforts tend to be small-scale and exclusive to more affluent individuals. The fact that they have not yet scaled should not suggest that this is a niche market. Debuting an innovation at the top of the market helps offset the up-front risks and costs associated with developing first-to-market iterations. The next evolution must be scaling and democratizing these efforts to make them more widely accessible.

Demand will only grow. Ignoring this shift is a missed business opportunity as well as a missed opportunity for community and social transformation that higher education is charged with stewarding.