Certificate Completion Drives Undergraduate Attainment Rates

The national undergraduate completion rate rose for the first time in three years last year, with 3.2 million learners earning an undergraduate credential during the 2023–24 academic year, a year-over-year increase of 0.6 percent, according to the most recent data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

This spring’s “Undergraduate Degree Earners” report, released today, attributes the increase to record-breaking growth in certificates, with 525,200 learners completing one, up 11.2 percent from the year prior. The report found certificate completers sought credentials for a variety of reasons, including to launch directly into a career, to reskill in a new field and to kick-start their postsecondary education.

“This appears to be good news for the nation’s current workforce needs, particularly in the skilled trades and other areas that rely on undergraduate certificates as credentials for job openings,” Doug Shapiro, the executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, said in a media briefing Wednesday. “But it could be a troubling sign for the future,” he added, pointing to a 1.3 percent decline in bachelor’s completion and 0.9 percent fall in associate degree completion.

The report evaluates completion among all students enrolled in postsecondary education, regardless of how long ago they started or whether they held a prior credential.

Certificate completion rates have made up a greater share of all undergraduate credential completers over the past decade, growing nearly four percentage points, from 12.4 percent in the 2014–15 academic year to 16.1 percent in 2023–24. Younger students are fueling this growth, with the majority of certificates being awarded this year to those age 24 and younger.

Shapiro attributed the rise in credential attainment in part to the rising costs of higher education and the perceived lack of value of a degree. “Students and families are forgoing long-term investments in postsecondary degrees that traditionally lead to higher earnings and more secure employment in the future,” he said.

Conversely, associate and bachelor’s degree completion has plateaued, with similar numbers of students earning degrees in both 2014–15 and 2023–24.

“Stacking” credentials also seems to be more common; the number of prior certificate earners who completed a two-year degree rose 4.1 percent year over year, while the number of those who completed a four-year degree rose 6.3 percent.

“There may be a silver lining in here, that in the longer-term students will continue to build upon today’s certificates,” Shapiro said.

Previous research shows that students from low-income backgrounds are more likely to complete and stack credentials, providing them an on-ramp to higher earnings. Institutions that offer stackable programs also see higher participation rates.

Clearinghouse data also found that the share of students who earned a certificate on top of a previous degree grew 8 percent year over year among associate degree holders and 2.5 percent among bachelor’s degree holders. Students in this group were most likely to earn a certificate in a different field than their major, pointing to reskilling through credentials.

This year’s report also suggested that more learners are completing multiple undergraduate credentials in a single academic year, with 10.4 percent of all completers finishing the year with two or more awards, compared to 8.3 percent in 2014–15.

This trend is also tied to greater certificate completion, with more than one-third of all students who earned a certificate receiving it in the same year they obtained a bachelor’s degree, associate degree or another certificate.