Fewer 18-Year-Olds Enrolled in College This Fall

Enrollment of 18-year-old freshmen dropped 5 percent this fall compared to last, a reversal of gains made in 2023, according to a new data analysis released by the National College Attainment Network Monday.

The special analysis, conducted by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, was commissioned by NCAN in order to take an early look at first-year enrollment trends after the U.S. Department of Education’s delayed rollout of last year’s Free Application for Federal Student Aid. The new form, intended to simplify the financial aid process, was riddled with glitches that made it hard for many to complete and waylaid students’ financial aid packages.

The analysis uses data from the end of October, covering about 80 percent of higher ed institutions and about 82.3 percent of students enrolled across the country. This year’s steep drop in 18-year-old freshman enrollment contrasts sharply with the 3 percent enrollment bump the group experienced from 2022 to 2023. Enrollment fell for this demographic in 46 states this fall, with an average drop of 7.1 percent.

Bill DeBaun, senior director of NCAN, said the magnitude of the decline among recent high school graduates is “very large and very discouraging.”

He noted that a number of factors may have contributed to the declines, including the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2023 decision to ban affirmative action, drops in the number of high school graduates in certain regions of the country and a relatively strong economy that may be enticing high school graduates to enter the workforce instead of attending college. But he believes the botched FAFSA rollout is the No. 1 culprit. He said June data tracked by NCAN found that FAFSA completions among high school seniors fell 11.5 percent year over year.

“My gut, as one who looks at a lot of FAFSA completion data, is that if we had had a normal FAFSA year last year, we would not be staring at a 5 percent decline in 18-year-old enrollment this semester,” DeBaun said. “We were starting to build some real positive momentum coming out of the pandemic. And this is a full reverse on that momentum.”

A Mix of Factors

Enrollment declined across racial groups for 18-year-old freshmen, though white students saw the steepest decline, the analysis found.

White 18-year-old enrollment dropped 10 percent between fall 2023 and 2024, compared to 8.4 percent for multiracial students, 8.2 percent for Black students, 5.7 percent for Asian students and 2.1 percent for Hispanic students.

However, at highly selective colleges and universities, the starkest enrollment drops were among freshmen of color, according to the analysis.

White 18-year-old enrollment at those institutions only fell 4.7 percent, whereas Black freshman enrollment plummeted 19.6 percent at highly selective public institutions and 13.8 percent at highly selective private ones. Multiracial students saw similarly sharp declines: 14.8 percent at highly selective public institutions and 13.7 percent at highly selective private institutions. Hispanic freshman enrollment also fell—8.9 percent at highly selective public institutions and 6.7 percent at highly selective private ones.

DeBaun said it’s “very hard” to pinpoint the exact cause of these results given the confluence of FAFSA problems and the downfall of affirmative action. The affirmative action decision could have contributed to enrollment declines among freshmen of color at highly selective institutions by reducing their admissions numbers or exerting a “chilling effect” on the students applying. But because the FAFSA glitches delayed award letters from colleges, some students also had to make enrollment decisions without adequate information about their financial aid packages. DeBaun believes that could have also steered students of color toward more affordable, less selective institutions.

He added that it’s possible the enrollment decline among white students could be related to another trend he’s seen: Middle-income communities’ FAFSA completion rates haven’t recovered as much as low-income communities’ since the pandemic.

“It is encouraging to see FAFSA completion rates bounce back for the lowest-income communities and for students of color—full stop,” DeBaun said. “But there are college-access deserts in this country where we are maybe not connecting students with the supports, the guidance, the college knowledge that they need in order to find their next best step after high school,” including some predominantly white suburbs and rural areas.

Differences Among Institutions

Public two-year institutions saw less of a decline in 18-year-old freshmen than their four-year counterparts. Enrollment fell only 1.7 percent at community colleges, compared to 6.4 percent at public four-year institutions and 6.2 percent at private four-year institutions.

The analysis also parsed freshmen enrollment trends for different kinds of institutions based on the share of their students who receive Pell Grants, federal financial aid for low-income students—a first for the National Student Clearinghouse. High-Pell-serving community colleges had a modest decline in 18-year-old freshmen—0.9 percent—while high-Pell-serving public and private four-year institutions had steeper drops of 6.2 percent and 10.1 percent, respectively.

The smaller dip at two-year colleges is an “encouraging” sign that community colleges are rebounding from pandemic enrollment declines, DeBaun said. But he added that the trend also might reflect a “matriculation shift” in which students who wanted to attend four-year universities opted for more affordable community colleges instead amid uncertainty about their financial aid packages.

Madeleine Rhyneer, vice president of consulting services and dean of enrollment management at EAB, a higher education consulting firm, said an EAB survey of parents and families found that 51 percent of students didn’t have financial aid award letters in time to make their college decisions.

“The outstanding question is, what happens this year?” she said. “Do FAFSA filings bounce back? Are people able to make financial aid awards in a timely fashion so families can make good decisions about what’s going to be their best opportunity? And if that is the case, then are we able to ameliorate this really unfortunate decline this year? … That’s an open question.”

Ripple Effects and Next Steps

Enrollment experts say the downstream effects of freshman enrollment losses could be harmful for students and institutions alike.

The new data show college “access is not solved,” Kim Cook, CEO of NCAN, said at a Monday briefing about the analysis.

“Clearly, this was a hit we could not afford,” Cook said of the freshman enrollment declines. “These data need to be a call to action to increase affordability, belongingness and value to the high school classes of 2025 and beyond.”

Cook noted that some higher ed advocates and state policymakers have shifted their focus to improving college completion rates or enrolling adult learners with some college credits but no degree. And while those efforts are important, recent high school graduates need help transitioning to college, too, she said.

DeBaun worries that recent high school graduates who opted out of college this year may not return without speedy interventions.

“When students miss that immediate transition to college, their likelihood of enrolling in a postsecondary institution, let alone attaining a degree or credential down the line, diminishes precipitously,” he said.

Rhyneer said freshman enrollment declines are bad news for institutions looking to grow in a volatile market and also pose a risk to recent high school graduates’ potential for economic mobility.

“College has historically been viewed as the engine of economic opportunity,” Rhyneer said. “And we know … that lives, futures, career trajectories are changed” by college. “There’s concern about the loss of human potential.”

She believes colleges and universities shouldn’t panic, but they need to combat ongoing questions about the value of a degree as well as negative perceptions of the FAFSA process after last year’s debacle.

So far, “students are able to file. It really is faster. It is an improved situation,” she said. “But you’ve got lingering public feeling out there about what my neighbor experienced, or what I heard at church, or what I heard at that PTA meeting about the disaster that was last year.”

DeBaun recommended colleges do outreach to recent high school graduates to remind them they can still secure financial aid and enroll for the spring semester. He also suggested high schools contact former students and offer supports, like inviting them back for FAFSA nights and help with their applications. He encouraged state policymakers to fund outreach efforts to students, as well.

“It is not too late” to win these students back, he said, “but that window won’t stay open forever.”