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The number of physicians needed to treat the aging American populace will outstrip the supply of qualified doctors by between 46,000 and 90,000 by 2025, with primary care positions and surgical specialists accounting for between half and two-thirds of the shortfall, according to a study released Tuesday by the Association of American Medical Colleges. The study attributes much of the projected shortfall to changing demographics, and a portion of it to the effects of health care reform.