June 19, 2007

Questioning the Admissions Assumptions

A major study released Monday by the University of California suggests that high school grades may be good at predicting not only first-year college performance, as commonly believed, but performance throughout four undergraduate years. The same study suggests that the SAT adds little predictive value to admissions decisions and is hindered by a high link between SAT scores and socioeconomic status — a link not present for high school grades.

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Taken together, the study questions many assumptions widely held in admissions. And while the last year has seen numerous studies on the impact of standardized testing in admissions (with a range of conclusions), the new study is from Saul Geiser and Maria Veronica Santelices through the University of California at Berkeley’s Center for Studies in Higher Education, and is based on data from all University of California campuses. Past studies by the center have been influential in the evolving debate over admissions standards — and anything involving the University of California tends to get attention, given the system’s influence and top campuses.

The new study is an update of a 2003 report that looked at the validity of various admissions criteria on first-year performance at the university, based on a sampling of 80,000 students. Most admissions testing is based on predictive value in the first year of college, so that was a logical starting point, the researchers reasoned. But the new study goes further — and follows the students through four years of grades.

The primary finding was that high school grades are consistently the strongest predictor of any factor of success through four years in college. And contrary to what researchers expected to find, the predictive value of high school grades goes up as students progress through college, even though more time has passed since high school.

Significantly, the predictive value of high school grades was equally strong across different cohorts of students by socioeconomic status, but fields of study, and by university campus. The importance of that finding is that it stands in contrast to the SAT, for which the California researchers — like many others — found a strong correlation between high scores and socioeconomic status. So the researchers found that grades not only are the best tool to predict success, but don’t carry the problem of seeming to favor the wealthy and some racial groups over others.

Geiser, one of the two authors of the study, noted in an interview that defenders of standardized testing always like to say that it is needed to compensate for the fact that high schools have widely varying quality. But what the researchers found is that there isn’t such a problem — even in a state as large and diverse as California. “How you perform in college prep biology is a justifiable and appropriate way” to decide whom to admit, Geiser said.

While Geiser said that the results clearly point to the need to “emphasize” grades and to “de-emphasize” the SAT (a direction in which the University of California has moved), he stopped short of saying that the findings suggest that universities should abandon the SAT. He said he did not want to be drawn into that debate.

Rather, he said he hoped people would consider the meaning of the finding that only 30 percent of the grade variance in college could be explained by the factors admissions officers examine. If so much of the grade variance can’t be explained, Geiser said, that raises a tough question: “Why are we emphasizing prediction [of college success] as the central value in admissions if we do it so poorly?”

If the whole process has such a low rate of success, Geiser said, more emphasis should be place on “criteria that have face validity instead of predictive validity.” So if a student earns A’s in college preparatory courses, that says something about student knowledge, and so should count for plenty. In the testing arena, he said such a philosophy might lead to reliance on the SAT II tests of subject matter (once called “achievement tests") rather than tests such as the SAT I that grew out of what were once called aptitude tests.

A spokeswoman for the College Board said that the research was “highly technical and complex” and that no one there could comment on it Monday.

Bob Schaeffer, a leading critic of the SAT and public education director for the National Center for Fair & Open Testing, said he viewed the study as an important one. “For too long, the college admissions testing debate has been skewed by a widespread myth that standardized exams are a better predictor of undergraduate performance than are high school grades” when that’s not the case, he said.

The study confirms why more colleges are dropping testing requirement, in favor of admissions decisions based on grades, activities, community service and other factors, he said. Schaeffer added that these colleges “understand that test scores do not measure merit.”

— Scott Jaschik

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Comments

SAT can have value to admissions decisions

What this study seems to most strongly suggest is that effective admissions decisions are more complicated than constructing some index of test scores and high school grades. As a bright student not very challenged by my under funded public high school and willing to let my grades slide so I could go to the library and learn something rather than complete time consuming but not very educational assignments, I’m glad I could use high SAT scores to convince the Yale admissions office I was a good bet. And I was a good bet, going on to complete a PhD and making a contrabution to society in my adult work. Does that mean that every low gpa, high SAT student is a good bet. Certainly not, and I’m sure the admissions committee looked at my entire application for the considerable evidence that I was a motivated learner even if I wasn’t particularly motivated by grades. So let’s applaud the holistic assessment process used on many university campuses, and continue this fine debate about what constitutes merit and how we match students to colleges where they are most likely to make good use of their educational opportunities.

Bob Duniway, A counter example at Seattle University, at 12:25 pm EDT on June 25, 2007

One important aspect of college admissions criteria is the message they communicate to students, counselors, and teachers in the high schools. If GPA is the most important factor, students are often encouraged to take a less rigorous high school curriculum in order to maintain their 4.0 GPAs. However, a rigorous high school curriculum results in a higher SAT or ACT score and is a significant factor in college success.

Jan Clinard, Director of Academic Initiatives at Montana University System, at 12:40 pm EDT on June 25, 2007

How are people not getting this?! The SAT (and other tests) have some predictive power. A lot of people seem to get stuck on the fact that they don’t tell us everything, but there is no way to predict college performance 100% accurately. As already suggested several times; a measure combining GPA and SAT and the like (with the right weighting of course) would without doubt be the best predictive instrument we can come up with as of today. I just don’t see the problem.

Oscar, at 5:30 pm EDT on March 23, 2008

Well, well

Did we really need a study to tell us that a four-hour test would NEVER be as good of a predictor of performance than actual performance? Anyone who has been in the field of admissions should know that by now. I know I’ve been preaching that to the choir for two decades without much results. While a 1400 on the SAT may well indicate the student should be successful in college, a 900 or even lower does NOT necessarly indicate that a student will not be successful in college. Is that so hard to grasp that we needed another study to tell us. Well, thanks for the study anyhow I needed some light reading this morning.

Martin, at 7:35 am EDT on June 19, 2007

Provided one holds high school curriculum constant

Folks should remember that a UC sample screens out students with average or weak high school academic curriculum profiles. Under such conditions, of course high school grades will be worth more than test scores. The most recent “Toolbox Revisited” demonstrated the decline in the associative value of test scores when degree completion was the dependent variable. They came out at the bottom of the heap. The academic intensity of high school curriculum still came out on top. Lessons for the broader universe of entering college students are clear.

Clifford Adelman, Senior Associate at Insgtitute for Higher Ed Policy, at 7:35 am EDT on June 19, 2007

Retention Indicators

Does not surprise me at all.

In some dabbling with data I have discovered that HS GPAs are fairly strong predictors of first year retention while standardized test scores are not.

James Post, Sr. Associate Director Admissions at The University of Tennessee, at 8:25 am EDT on June 19, 2007

Why did the study leave out consideration of the ACT, a national test that is as widely taken as the SAT? Unlike the SAT, the ACT is curriculum based. The fact that standardized tests alone are not strong predictors of success is not news to any of us. However, I would hope that we would be careful not to condemn all standardized testing for college applicants based on one study, in one state, based on one standardized test.

Alan Tuchtenhagen, Associate Vice Chancellor at University of Wiscosin-River Falls, at 9:15 am EDT on June 19, 2007

And this is news? A century ago, in 1906, Thorndike found very low correlations between college performance and standing in the College Entrance Examination Board exams, six years after they started giving them. Since then hundreds of studies have come up with the same pitiful predictability of standardized exams: only about 30% of variance in academic performance explained, at best. Often the predictability is lower. What someone should study is why universities and colleges continue to require applicants to take the tests.

Rich Haswell, Haas Professor Emeritus at Texas A&M University, Corpus Christi, at 9:20 am EDT on June 19, 2007

g

From the results of this study would it then be safe to assume that if we took the SAT scores of all of the neurosurgeons in the United States and put those scores on ping-pong balls and then put them in a giant tumbler that the odds of pulling out a 1400 score would be the same as pulling out a 750 score? If that is true then the SAT is truly no better than randomly selecting students for admission. My guess though is that there is a pretty strong correlation between becoming a neurosurgeon (or any other profession that requires a high IQ) and a high SAT score.

I have not read the study but I wonder if they controlled for the g loadings of the various questions on the SAT. I would think that the higher the g loading the greater the predictive value of academic success in college.

Thomassowellfan, at 9:20 am EDT on June 19, 2007

New Rules

Beginning today, all administrators and teachers in favor of continuing the SAT as the gatekeeper for college admissions must also take the SAT as a basis for keeping their jobs ... better update those CVs

Michael, at 9:20 am EDT on June 19, 2007

Methodology

I look forward to seeing the original work of the California researchers, but admission officers need not choose between SAT scores and High School GPA. An admissions index that includes information from both SAT scores and High School GPA, as well as teacher evaluations, reader ratings from admission essays, and other tools of the profession, will outperform any single predictor of college success.

Tony Broh, Director of Research Policy at COFHE, at 9:30 am EDT on June 19, 2007

Variance in College Grades

One of the reasons there is so much ‘unexplained’ variance in college grading has to do with what is being predicted. The variance of college grades is often huge. For example, in a college calculus course that used a common set of objectives and a common textbook, but faculty specific final exams and grade distributions, the percentage of students who earned a ‘D’ or ‘F’ in any given section of more than 40 sections ranged from 3% to 75%. Those grade distributions were largely independent of SAT Math scores. Some of the sections with an average SAT math score of 680 had 5% ‘Ds’ and ‘Fs’ and other sections with the same average SAT math score might have 50% of their students with a D or F grade. Obviously, the correlation of SAT with calculus grades was very low.

Much of that ‘unexplained’ variance in college grades is the ‘unexplained’ variance in the quality of teaching. Maybe one of the reasons high school grades are a better predictor is that students have four years of experience in high school overcoming ‘variable’ quality of teaching. We should be spending as much time understanding the variance in the outcome as we do in understanding the predictors.

Gary Hanson, Senior Research & Policy Analyst at University of Texas System, at 9:30 am EDT on June 19, 2007

“Folks should remember that a UC sample screens out students with average or weak high school academic curriculum profiles.”

A UC sample also screens out students with low SAT or ACT scores. Both are such obvious objections that I’m astonished Geiser (who I usually like) doesn’t consider them.

Everyone focuses on scores predicting GPA, but that hasn’t been the point for decades. Prediction of GPA became irrelevant once the first year college academic load varied widely.

Here’s a simple three question test that makes a mockery of any other debate:

Do grades predict abilities to do college level work?

Answer: No

Does course load unambiguously predict ability to do college level work?

Answer: No

Do SAT/ACT/AP scores predict ability to do college level work?

Answer: Yes

If anyone seriously doubts my answers, they should ask themselves what colleges require for students to “opt out” of classes.

For example, UC campuses require students to take remedial classes unless *they have achieved test scores*. UC isn’t the only campus. The Cal States have a broad range of remedial courses that students can “test” out of with their college admissions scores. Most campuses do.

And if a student doesn’t have the test scores that prove readiness, what do these college campuses do? Why, they give the students another test.

At no point does any university use GPA or course load to determine the students’ first year courses. They only use test scores.

So ACT and SAT scores aren’t really used by the colleges to predict first year grades, but rather ability to handle college level work. Universities use these scores to determine every aspect of a student’s college readiness. Any student who protested “But I got straight As in English” would get nowhere.

So rather than bewailing the evil SAT/ACT, why not ensure that more low income kids are given the opportunity to raise their score?

I just taught an ACT test prep course to a class of low income, Hispanic and African American students. Results are here, if anyone is interested.

Anyone who thinks grades explain anything, check out the complete lack of correlation between GPA, course load, and ACT scores in the Class Profile.

Cal, at 9:30 am EDT on June 19, 2007

why keep sat?

Thank you, Prof. Haswell, for noting 1906 findings on predictive value of testing. More: 1977 report by fmr. Sec’y of Labor Willard Wirtz, ON FURTHER EXAMINATION, found h.s. grades with predictive value of.50 re: success in first-year of college while SAT had a value of.42. SAT’s 12-year fall 63-75 brought Wirtz Comm to life as well as launching the infamous and bogus “Literacy Crisis,” still with us. The stronger value of h.s. grades over high-stakes testing has long been known but SAT stays to preserve elite advantages(social class—family income is strongest predictor of high scores on SAT), white supremacy(Blacks and Hispanics score lowest on SAT, gatekeeper to selective colleges)), and high-profits to testing industry. Final note: h.s. is hardly egalitarian in inputs or outcomes, also skewed by class and race;pub schls are funded by property taxes, so affluent areas finance lots of coll prep courses for their kids, not so in h.s. in poor and working-class districts, who also lack home-based investments like computers.

ira shor, prof. at city univ of ny grad ctr, at 9:50 am EDT on June 19, 2007

SAT and SES

Again the University of California has shown that high school grades, not the SAT, best predict college performance. My book, The Power of Privilege: Yale and America’s Elite Collegs, documents the many times this institution has provided us with solid empirical findings on the academic uselessness, but social discriminatory effects of, the SAT. It is long past time when all of us should drop the SAT, which disguises SES reproduction as academic merit, and move back into a partnership with America’s high schools on academic preparation.

Joseph Soares, Associate Professor at Wake Forest University, at 10:10 am EDT on June 19, 2007

Say wha...?

It simply astounds me that so many on this page put such stock in highschool grades! I guess my assumption was that contributors on this site had some college experience. Get a clue: Every fall I have a wagontrain of freshman coming through my office, failing exams and papers in hand, in disbelief because they were straight-A students in highschool.

boot on the ground, at 12:45 pm EDT on June 19, 2007

Variability within college

Gary Hansen is right on the money.

It’s been shown time and again that grades vary consistently by disciplinary grouping (science, social science, etc).

Does anyone think that many students with low Math SAT scores end up in the low-grading sciences?

I also wonder about the effect of drop-out rates on this kind of study. Inevitably, by the second year — or third at the latest — the worst of students are gone, so the whole lower end of the scale gets eliminated.

Jack, at 12:45 pm EDT on June 19, 2007

I have found the comments at the end of the article a lot more enlightening than the article itself. I would also add that our entire education system might be so watered down, we do not know what academic success really is or how to measure what truly should be relevant. The humoring of the grading instructor for high marks or GPA works in high school and college. Is that what we measure with academic success? I do not believe that real aptitude tests that relate to IQ are a function of socio- economic status. My 9 brothers and sisters and I would have had more consistent results if that were true. What concerns me most, is some of our most intelligent people are turned off by the education system, drop out of it before or during college, and never achieve their rightful “credentialed status” to exercise their intellect for the good of society. They are not into playing games for GPA. They are too intellectual and respect learning too much to turn education into a game. College costs too much and classes are too large for exercising intellectual learning experiences. The real culprit in socioeconomic issues and college is controlling college costs and awarding financial support for football, basketball, soccer, etc, instead of for intellectual ability and interest.

Mary, at 1:45 pm EDT on June 19, 2007

Duh. . . huh?

Tony Broh, I think you’re writing over their heads. Could you please write a little slower for those who are having difficulty absorbing “SAT plus high school GPA.”

The combination of the two help to control for (a) students who have no academic self-discipline, but are excellent test-takers (or who manage to cheat), (b)excellent students in large, competitive high schools, and © average students in small, non-academically competitive high schools.

What is your problem with college entrance requirements gang? You want your new freshmen/first-year students to waste a semester or two and to waste their money on a very bad bet?

Dr. F. Gump, at 2:00 pm EDT on June 19, 2007

Adjustment for Course Difficulty?

What corrections are made for course difficulty within a subject? Where my son just finished his freshman year (one of those top-ranked schools that apparently pay a lot of attention, all else equal, to SAT scores), there are at least 4 (perhaps even 5) first-year calculus sequences. If a “high SAT” student receives a B+ in the hardest calculus course and a “low SAT” student receives an A+ in the easiest calculus course, it seems that the authors statistical analysis would suggest that “low SAT” scores are positively correlated with “higher” college academic performance. Such a statistical scenario can easily be played at this university for course in physics, computer science, and many other areas.

PR, at 3:00 pm EDT on June 19, 2007

Responding to: “From the results of this study would it then be safe to assume that if we took the SAT scores of all of the neurosurgeons in the United States and put those scores on ping-pong balls and then put them in a giant tumbler that the odds of pulling out a 1400 score would be the same as pulling out a 750 score?”

No.

Because while SAT scores are not good predictors of future success, they are nonetheless good predictors of admission, because SAT scores are used to make admission decisions. A person who got a 750 wouldn’t graduate, not because they were less able than the 1400 student, but because they would not be admitted in the first place.

Stephen Downes, at 7:50 pm EDT on June 19, 2007

Suspicious “controls”

I just skimmed the study itself. It claimed to have controlled for “demographics,” including “parental education.” This strikes me as very suspicious.

It is unsurprising that factors like parental education correlate with SAT scores, at least somewhat. I fail to see why the authors would “control” for this factor, though. I am not a statistician, so perhaps I am wrong, but this strikes me as a straw man argument. That is, “the SAT score, as adjusted by these authors to control for things like parental education, is not a very good predictor.” So what?

Either the SAT score has predictive value for UGPA or it doesn’t. Controlling for extraneous variables seems designed to fudge the numbers. Any statisticians out there willing to explain if my suspicion is right or wrong?

Bill M., at 7:50 pm EDT on June 19, 2007

Controlling for a variable, in this context, usually means that there are a variety of inputs (independent variables, like economic status, SAT score) and a small number of dependent variables, like college GPA or whatever.

In order to see if variable X has any predictive value, you take out the correlation of the dependent variable with the other inputs. That is, you want to measure whether (for example) both poor and rich students with high SAT scores have higher college success than poor and rich students with low SAT scores. _If_ income is correlated with both SAT score and college success, you can’t know whether SAT score is conveying any information apart from that already encoded in the income.

This may seem like the input factors are degenerate, but if you have enough data points you can use statistical techniques to determine which of the inputs actually explain the variance in the output.

Benjamin W., Enormous State University, at 2:50 am EDT on June 20, 2007

Boots on the Ground—

You are seeing exactly why the correlation between high school grades and success in college increases as the four years pass. Those who are used to getting _A_s in high school and then suddenly find themselves getting lower grades in college come to you, and go to study sessions and to see professors and so on, with the result that even if they start off at a disadvantage to those who went to prep school, they make it up when they recognize their deficiencies. People who don’t have personal expectation of success are likely to react differently.

Thomassowellfan—

Given that every practicing neurosurgeon today went to school under conditions favoring high SAT scores for admission, the utter silliness of your “random test” should be apparent even to a Thomas Sowell fan. (It’s almost like administering tests in English to African people whose first language is not English and then declaring them inherently ungifted because of their low scores).

thane doss, Yomiuiri Culture Centers, at 4:35 am EDT on June 20, 2007

Imagine a Balance

On the value of the report, imagine a scale, like that held by the Greek figure Themis. On the East side are ten marbles of the same size representing the numerous arguments in favor of emphasizing SAT I in admissions, particularly in the context of Affirmative Action (usually it is those scores that are used as the fulcrom of the opposition against it). On the West side of the scale visualize eight marbles that represent arguments against the emphasis of SAT I use in admissions. The value of the instant study is that it adds another marble to the West—to de-emphasize SAT I. Hopefully the debate is moving toward a balance. The push toward SAT II scores combined with GPA— adjusted for the variability of curricula (some school districts may have a greater opportunity to provide AP courses than others), strikes me as the type of combination that moves toward that kind of balance.

Arnold, at 10:15 am EDT on June 20, 2007

high school grades

As pointed out at least for the Calfornia situaiton, the notion in the study — at least as reported — that high school grades are not sensitive to socio-economic status is just patently absurd. It doesn’t even help to hold curriculum steady when the disparity in ledership effectivenss teaching, facilities, community support, co-curricular enrichment and so many more things vary so wildly among urban, suburban, and rural settings and state to state and even system to system. Ask any admissions counselor — they will be able to tell you which high school grades they really can trust which they cannot.

DA, at 2:35 pm EDT on June 20, 2007

“Controlling for parental education and income”

Well, Bill M. already beat me to it, but it’s worth repeating that the study artificially decreases the predictive power of the SAT by controlling for parental education and income.

That only makes sense if college admissions offices are going to use parental income and education as inputs. The “need blind” admissions claim to ignore parental income. Does anybody want admissions offices to use parental attributes instead of test scores?

Ken Hirsch, at 11:05 pm EDT on June 20, 2007

Ken,

Table 1 of the study shows that: 1) Parental economic status is fairly correlated with SAT score; 2) Parental economic status is hardly at all correlated with HS GPA. Many of the tables in the body of the report show that when the input factors are decomposed, HS GPA is the best (though not great) predictor of college GPA. SAT II writing is second. Parental education level is weakly correlated. Other SAT scores basically not at all.

A conclusion you can draw from this is that if an admissions officer is attempting to predict college success and takes SAT into account, what they are really doing is taking parental economic status into account, because that is the underlying variable. Independent of economic status, the HS GPA and the SAT II writing may be useful, but the other parts of SAT appear to at most be encoding information about the parents’ income or education level.

Of course, another point is that none of these are bulletproof predictors of college success. This is why lamenting about person X who got in while person Y was “better qualified” is often lame. You can’t just line up people and rank them from most to least qualified and expect that your ranking is meaningful at greater than about 30% accuracy. (I got the 30% number from the percentage of variance in college success that is explainable by the input factors.)

Benjamin W., Enormous State University, at 4:20 am EDT on June 21, 2007

SAT predictive value in college grades

Over the past 30 years I have worked at four different selective institutions and yet the college GPA data from each school has the same truth...high school grades are about 2.5 to 3 times more predictive in correlations than test scores: SAT or ACT. If you place the grades and high school rank in the context of the quality of students at the high school and adjust upwards or downwards based on a more talented or less talented base of students you will even get better predictive results from grades than from test scores. Also,in multiple regressions the high school performance (by far the best predictor)gets only a little better in its improved predictive value by adding the SAT/ACT. At one univeristy where I worked the High School GPA had a correlation coefficiient of 28% and the test score had a 12% coefficient. The multiple regression of both factors only increased to 32%. Daniel Goleman’s work on emotional intelligence, if it could be qualitified, would likely improve our predictive ability to project accurate successes in college. The problem is that the top colleges are not investing in a more complex selection process. We continue to use an overly simplistic admissions process that gives too much power to the SAT or ACT score. This also allows the richest institutions to disproportionately enroll the richest students (correlations with wealth and test scores is well documented). Colleges are complaining the USNEWS ratings reduce their college to one score and that this is unfair,inaccurate, and an injustice to students because it is so limited in scope. Yet, we at the selective colleges continue to over use one statistic, the test score. President’s, ambitious Provosts, and out-of-touch faculty bodies seem to demand higher SAT or ACT profiles. The test score has too much authority over our assessment of a student’s value to our insititution...sort of the flip side of our complaint about the USNEWS rankings I think. Using the SAT and ACT has real value but overusing it in a simplistic manner is the problem. Colleges should act more like our top corporations and add more personalized assessments. This would require hiring more admissions staff with stronger credentials—but in the long run the college that invested in this would generate a much better cohort of students and campus citizens. It will never happen!Presidents, Provosts, alumni and trustee boards,and even faculty committee’s like the simple nature of one number—much easier than thinking in a complex manner.

don bishop, associate vice president for enrollment management at creighton university, at 5:05 pm EDT on June 21, 2007

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