News, Views and Careers for All of Higher Education
Jan. 30, 2007
Linda J. Bilmes, a lecturer in public policy at Harvard University, calls her latest paper “pretty dry.” That hasn’t prevented it from riling high-ranking Pentagon officials — who called her and her dean to complain about her work. When they questioned her sources of material, they ran into a bit of a problem: She did most of her research with data on federal Web sites. So what did the Pentagon do? It changed the Web sites, and now continues to trash her research.
Bilmes has become a leading expert on economic questions related to the war in Iraq, and her experience the last few weeks demonstrates how social scientists can end up in the line of political fire when their findings — however dry — offend government officials.
The story begins with a paper Bilmes wrote last year with Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor and Nobel laureate in economics. In their study, they found that the Bush administration has seriously underestimated the economic costs of the war in Iraq. After the study was publicized, Bilmes was approached by some experts on veterans’ benefits who said that one cost of the war hadn’t received enough attention in their work (or from the government): the costs of caring for veterans injured in the conflict.
And that’s the question that led Bilmes to prepare a 21-page study that she presented this month in Chicago at the Allied Social Sciences Association meeting. The presentation of “Soldiers Returning From Iraq and Afghanistan: The Long-Term Costs of Providing Veterans Medical Care and Disability Benefits” went off without controversy and might have escaped Pentagon notice. But Bilmes also published an op-ed version of her findings in the Los Angeles Times. The Pentagon did notice that piece.
The central argument of the new Bilmes paper is that so many soldiers are being injured that the costs of caring for them over their lifetimes is likely to be $350 billion, or up to twice that, depending on how long the war lasts. The high cost is the result of huge advances in military medicine that have greatly reduced the chances that a soldier injured in Iraq will die. As a result, the ratio of injuries to deaths — 16:1 by her estimate — is higher than in any other war in U.S. history. (By comparison, in Vietnam the ratio was 2.8:1 and in World War II the ratio was 1.6:1.)
Bilmes uses a series of calculations based on the types of care those injured will require over their lifetimes to offer various scenarios for the costs of the care, and she also argues that the current veterans’ health-care system is not ready for the influx of injured or the associated costs. She offers suggestions for streamlining the process of getting injured veterans the benefits they have earned. And while both her studies and the op-ed are critical of the Bush administration’s response (or lack thereof) to the veterans’ health needs, the tone is academic, not polemic.
What set off the Pentagon was Bilmes’ estimate for the current number of injured of 50,500. William Winkenwender Jr., assistant secretary of defense for health affairs, called the Los Angeles Times, Bilmes, and David T. Ellwood — dean of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government — to complain that the real figure is less than half that — just over 22,000. When Bilmes was asked where she got her data, she pointed out that it came from the Department of Veterans Affairs, which in turn gets its data from the Pentagon.
The Pentagon investigated further and found that the VA “misunderstood” the Pentagon’s reports, according to Cynthia Smith, a Department of Defense spokeswoman. She acknowledged that the VA had been using numbers consistent with what Bilmes reported, but said that once the Pentagon explained “the error,” the Veterans Affairs department changed its Web site so its injury numbers are consistent with those of the Pentagon.
Why the misunderstanding and the “error"? The original figures from Veterans Affairs were for “non-mortal” injuries. But that doesn’t include only those who are shot at in combat. That includes people who get sick, people who are in accidents and so forth — a group of people that is as large as those injured in combat. The Pentagon doesn’t want those people counted.
Bilmes points out that a soldier in an accident in Iraq is as entitled to health care as a soldier who is shot. And she points out that she wrote an economic analysis looking at the question of how much all of this care was going to cost. Leaving out half of those injured would have resulted in seriously flawed numbers — when the whole point of her work in this area is to help people figure out how much money will be needed for the U.S. to meet obligations it has made to its soldiers.
Smith, the Pentagon spokeswoman, does not dispute Bilmes on the point that soldiers are entitled to health care regardless of how they are injured. “They are all cared for,” she said. So if Bilmes is correct that she’s counting injured veterans who are entitled to health care and the source for her data is the U.S. government (before the Pentagon had the public data changed), why is Smith issuing statements saying that Bilmes is engaging in “gross distortion,” as she said in an e-mail? And why is a top Pentagon official calling Harvard suggesting that numbers are erroneous when they are just not the numbers the Pentagon wants out?
When pressed that Bilmes was just using a more inclusive definition of injured, and not making any mistake or distortion, Smith suggested that she hadn’t revealed that she wasn’t using the only definition of injured possible, asking twice: “Does she say that in her study?”
Actually Bilmes says exactly that. And she does so in her paper’s first footnote, in the introduction of her study. In that footnote, she writes that the Pentagon tracks injuries in several ways, and that one count it uses covers only those wounded with bullets, shrapnel, etc. And Bilmes writes explicitly that this would result in a ratio of injured to killed of 8:1 (although she notes that even this ratio would be larger than that of any previous U.S. war).
To Bilmes, what’s infuriating is that the Pentagon is saying she is wrong on points of fact when they aren’t dealing with what she actually wrote. “I have no problem with them calling me or anyone to talk about my paper,” she said. “But what I think is inappropriate is that they seem to be responding without having read my paper.”
While the Pentagon was entitled to its view of which figure of injured it wanted to focus on, she said, it was also unfair for it to object to others’ arguing that other numbers were worth examining. “I think it is inappropriate for the Pentagon to put pressure on a junior faculty member doing a piece of scholarly research on the somewhat data-driven subject on disability costs just because they may want to have a different number in public.”
Bilmes said that she thought the military should look at the issue from the perspective of making sure that soldiers get the help they may need in the years ahead. While she worked in the Clinton administration (rising to the level of assistant secretary of commerce), she said she viewed this project and her interest in these issues as “nonpartisan.” She stressed that she wasn’t writing to criticize the Iraq war, but was doing economic analysis — analysis designed to help those in the armed forces.
Harvard has been supportive, Bilmes said. The university is featuring her research on its home page.
While the Pentagon continues to attack, others in Washington are praising the paper.
U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, the Illinois Democrat exploring a run for the presidency, was briefed on the findings and cited them in introducing legislation last week to demand better accounting by the military of casualties in Iraq and improvements in the health benefits offered.
“The Pentagon and VA need to come clean on the true costs of the Iraq war on our troops,” Obama said in a statement. “It doesn’t make a difference whether you were hit by enemy fire, or injured because your vehicle crashed, or got sick because of serving in a war zone. The effects on the soldiers and their families are the same. And the impact in terms of the current fighting force and future demands on the VA are also the same.”
And the veterans groups that asked Bilmes to explore the issue are also backing her.
Stephen L. Robinson, a Gulf War vet who is director of government relations for Veterans for America (formerly the Vietnam Veterans of America Foundation), called her findings “incredibly valuable.” The Iraq conflict is unusual, he said, in that so many soldiers are being injured out of combat. There are all kinds of reasons for that, he said, but it’s a reality.
“We think it’s reprehensible that the Pentagon would call Linda Bilmes and bitch her out over the phone and put pressure on the school” about this, Robinson said. “I want to ask the Department of Defense, ‘Why aren’t you doing reports on why there are so many injured and on their care?’ It’s ridiculous to be ignoring all of those [non-combat] injuries. Why are they attacking this research?”
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“After Harvard scholar documents costs of caring for soldiers hurt in Iraq, the Pentagon reacts — by attacking the researcher and changing U.S. Web sites”
“It changed the Web sites, and now continues to trash her research.”
“While the Pentagon continues to attack”
This is not even remotely journalistic language: It is a stark and repeated effort to control what the reader thinks about the matter in advance of any facts. I don’t know about anyone else, but I will think my thoughts, thank you, without any outside directions about what to think. This piece belongs, at best, in the opinion section.
In addition, what “attacks” took place? Questions were certainly asked, but has the academy now officially arrived at the point where any questions are now impermissible “attacks?”
The devolution of American higher education continues apace. The lady should simply defend herself and her ideas. If they withstand reasoned scrutiny, she’s made her point. If they don’t, her ideas are properly discounted.
JBM, at 7:35 am EST on January 30, 2007
If the enemy fires upon the messenger, the messenger avoids the gunfire, her car runs off the road, she suffers serious injuries including a broken back, do her injuries not count?
Massaging the numbers, is not unusual for this administration. Consider how they have massaged facts and figures related to funding higher education costs. Statements have actually been made that increasing interest rates on student loans was a good thing?
Jack Girvan, at 7:35 am EST on January 30, 2007
I think the first criticism of this piece ‘attacks’ the journalistic style of this article to further his/her own viewpoint. There is nothing wrong with calling these ‘attacks’ or using the word ‘trashed’ in this article. It is just another way to get people to read it, to make them feel they are reading about a dynamic process and to make it interesting. I commend IHE on their coverage of issues such as this and do not see it as partisan. In times such as these, everyone seems to be trying to minipulate everyone else. IHE has always seemed reasonable and fair to me.
Jr, at 8:35 am EST on January 30, 2007
So now that the Pentagon has gone postmodern (along with much of academia) and has defined its terms in the way it desires based upon its reality, it is criticized — yet, academia is praised for doing the very same thing as “cutting edge,” “pushing the envelope,” and “redefining reality.”
Rather, it is foolhardy. Even in a “postmodern” world, people are wanting to define their own reality, but continue to subject others to standards of absolute truth. Reality is objective and what it is. Either people are lying, deceived themselves, or telling the truth. Let’s strip our agendas, discover the facts (not opinions and further agendas), and tell the truth... this world would be a much better (and easier) place to live.
EV, at 9:30 am EST on January 30, 2007
This article is a clear example of just how important our freedoms are...the ability to critically examine our government without fear of reprisal is crucial. This is a clear case of the important role that academic freedom plays in our society and in our lives.
LG, at 10:00 am EST on January 30, 2007
I have no problem with Bilmes’ report, but I do find it irresponsible at best to relegate the definition of a controversial term to a footnote. Was a similar “footnote” included in the op-ed piece?
Why is Obama asking for a better accounting of casualties? Based on this article, the government is able to account for the number of injuries due directly to the enemy, the number due to accidents, and the number due to illness. Seems like pretty good accounting to me. Lumping them all together is another story.
Again, I have no problem with Bilmes’ work that calculates the total cost of health care for all our vets. That’s interesting and useful information. But using terms that popularly mean, or will cause people to infer, one thing when the author intends another, requires clear, explicit definitions. Sounds like that’s missing.
sjz, at 10:00 am EST on January 30, 2007
This is of a piece with the Administation’s six-year pattern of hiding previously public information that becomes embarrassing when reporters and researchers find it. Anyone who thinks this kind of reporting is biased is simply not looking at recent history. For about 30 other examples of this kind of behavior by the Administration, start with this article and the links to sources: Bush Admin: What You Don’t Know Can’t Hurt Us / By Paul Kiel — Dec 18, 2006 http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/archives/002175.php
David Irons, The American University in Cairo, at 10:10 am EST on January 30, 2007
The Bush adminstration’s handling of the facts reminds me of an incident of Charles T. Russell right before the beginning of World War I. Obsessed with predicting the very month and day of the return of Christ, he prognosticated that the event would occur on a certain day in 1914 and calculated this by measuring the chambers of the great pyramid and relating these measurements to Biblical texts by his own private methodology. When Christ did not return on that date in 1914, he recalculated his conclusions to have him return in 1916, by simply changing the size of the Great Pyramid! The Bush administration does this every day after every failure. Why am I not surprised with their reaction to a scholarly and factual article. You know, one gets tired fo this nonsense! Will they ever tell the truth anytime about anything?????
Diogenes, King of at Nothing, at 10:41 am EST on January 30, 2007
The true number is somewhere inbetween what the pentagon wants and what is used in the paper.
Some of those injuries and illnesses would occur even if those soldiers were in North Carolina.
Really solid research would have estimated normal rates of peacetime training injurys and discounted the total.
Gary Carson, at 10:56 am EST on January 30, 2007
With West Point friends in Iraq — I’ve got no brief for GWB or Jane Fonda surrender crowd.
This I do know — ask a randomly-selected group of 20 social scientists a question, you generally get 20 different approaches. As opposed to, say, asking the Harvard FAS faculty about Larry Summers, and getting an easily-predictable majority vote.
When a researcher can ask cold, hard objective questions about themselves and the foundation of their work — that’s when reasonable people will listen.
C. Bigsby, at 11:05 am EST on January 30, 2007
In reality, the VA and other organizations providing health care for returning vets provide helath care for both WIA and those injured while in the service. Cost anaylysis needs to take the larger figure into account if the true costs are to be measured.
The monetary costs will not differ whether the people paying are for or against the war in Iraq. The real question is why the Pentagon and the Administration continue to hide the costs, either by changing specific web sites or by not including costs in budgets and then asking for supplemental spending.
theron, at 12:05 pm EST on January 30, 2007
The comment by JBM, “The devolution of American higher education continues apace. The lady should simply defend herself and her ideas. If they withstand reasoned scrutiny, she’s made her point. If they don’t, her ideas are properly discounted.” JBM.
Are not workds such as “devolution of American higher education,” “withstand reasoned scrutiny,” “properly discounted,” etc., highly opinionated, and thus contradictory to the message that JBM is trying to convey? MK
Mathew, at 12:05 pm EST on January 30, 2007
The key points are: (i) Harvard has the strength to protect its researcher; (ii) the government eliminated the sources of information to stop independent fact checking; and (iii) as evidenced by some of the comments to this article, to report the existence of the issue expose the author and any subsequent journalist to criticism.
The brutal treatment of whistleblowers in this allegedly free society has to stop if we are to have peace by non-violent means.
Young people who do not recognize or old people who will face the power are the only ones willing to go into the Buzz Saw. Those without adequate protection from retribution avoid the flack.
Not everyone is fortunate enough to have a Harvard to back them when they venture out to do battle with the war and organized religious profiteers.
Some how those to afford protection to young people who wish to follow in Howard Zinn and Norm Chomsky’s footsteps have to work to protect people like the lady hero in this story and for Scott and other members of the IHE staff as well.
William Sumner Scott, J.D.
Judicial Equality Foundation, Inc.
William Sumner Scott, J.D., at 12:05 pm EST on January 30, 2007
“Are not workds such as “devolution of American higher education,” “withstand reasoned scrutiny,” “properly discounted,” etc., highly opinionated, and thus contradictory to the message that JBM is trying to convey?”
I’m not a journalist, and I have never represented myself as one to the public. There’s no reason why stating my personal opinion on a comment forum is improper. There is every reason why personal opinion has no proper place in journalistic communication, as opposed to opinion editorialism.
JBM, at 1:45 pm EST on January 30, 2007
After reading the link to the op-ed version in the LA Times it is difficult to believe Bilmes viewed this project, and her interest in these issues, as “nonpartisan”.
In the first paragraph she correctly states the number of American war dead at 3000.
However, she follows with a misleading statement when she says: “That means we now have more than 50,000 wounded Iraq soldiers.” Misleading, because in the next sentence she asserts: “better medical care and STRONGER BODY ARMOR are enabling more soldiers to SURVIVE INJURIES.” (emphasis mine). I doubt if body armor helped the approximately 30,000 non-combat injuries...
Everyone knows this is a political hot potato. The implication to me is, we have 50,000 troops getting shot to pieces who are suffering combat wounds. Which I believe, plays much differently to the American public than the figure of 22,000.
I think there is a substantial difference and the Pentagon was right to clear up the mispercetion most readers would conclude.
M. McGuire, at 4:01 pm EST on January 30, 2007
Whatever her critics might think and/or write, I thank Dr. Bilmes and her group for providing us with easy-to-use numbers and details as to the cost of this ill-conceived war. Good people do great works; jerks try to cover up those great works. It is time for the blacklisting and coverups to come to an end. Afterall, Tricky Dick Nixon and many of his burglars no longer rule this country. I have read a good part of both of her reports and no amount of complaining by the Pentagon’s anti-freedom cabal can ever change the results therein or the opinions of the people who are able to understand the contents.
HermannMunster, at 4:01 pm EST on January 30, 2007
” .. Statements have actually been made that increasing interest rates on student loans was a good thing?”
Well, if politics are going to be part of this —
Why not ask former President Carter (Democrat, 18% prime rate) and LBJ’s economists (guns AND butter, foundation of stagflation)? They thought they were geniuses at the time, too.
So Jane Fonda thinks GWB is a klutz. So everyone is supposed to ignore what a joke international leaders thought W.J. Clinton was?
Karl Rove had it right. The party in power is Target No. 1 for everyone — journalists, the left-wing academic echo chamber, et al.
C. Bigsby, at 4:01 pm EST on January 30, 2007
With the claims an counterclaims of the accuracy of the numbers, and diversionary questions of whether “non-combat” numbers really count as war injuries, I would like to ask the following: What percentage of the killed and wounded were activated Guard or IFF soldiers? These soldiers would never have been injured, and therefore even listed among average army and marine “non-combat” injuries without the hostilities in Iraq. They would have been stateside, living their civilian lives, where you do not see numbers like 1 in 10 to 1 in 5 serious injuries per citizen over a 5 year period. (With numbers like 140000 soldiers serving, and ~25000 wounded in “non-combat” situations, the math is pretty clear.)
Dan Moynihan, at 6:20 pm EST on January 30, 2007
The paper does raise some methodological issues. What we would want to measure is “excess injuries” as a result of the U.S. military presence in Iraq. Soldiers presumably have car accidents or slip on pool sides while in the U.S. too, so counting similar injuries in Iraq may be a stretch. On the other hand, many non-combat injuries are nonetheless directly related to the Iraq involvement. For example, one of my former students who was in the Indiana National Guards was accidentally knocked off a tank turret while preparing to unload it in Kuwait harbor, fell to the bottom of the ship, broke several vertebras in her back, and suffered a concussion that left her with almost total memory loss for over a year. She is now on total disability, limps, and feeling constant pain from the injury. The Pentagon’s narrow definition of “wounded in combat” does not include injuries such as this in the tally. This injury would not have been counted in the data that Bilme used either since it did not occur in Iraq. But it’s clearly an excess injury that would not have happened if she had not been sent to Iraq. I don’t know that one could identify these excess injuries with precision unless one had access to case-by-case data about the circumstances surrounding each injury. Maybe someone with a large research budget will someday hire a couple of graduate students to sift through the data if it’s ever made available. In the meantime, we can say that the Pentagon’s definition is certainly too narrow and fails to include many excess injuries. The data used by Bilme may count some injuries that do not belong, but also ignores some that do. It’s not clear that anyone knows whether it over or underestimates the actual excess military casualties. In addition, private contractors working in Iraq on behalf of the U.S. military also sometimes get injured. It seems to me that these injuries should be counted too. But then we could also ask whether an Alabama automobile worker who gets injured while assembling an armor-plated humvee destined for Iraq should also be counted as an excess injury. If similar injuries are counted, then even the number used by Bilme would likely be a substantial underestimate. Nonmilitary injuries may not be a liability for the U.S. government, but they are a real cost to the U.S. society.
Marc Bilodeau, Associate Professor Department of EconomicsIUPUI
Marc Bilodeau, Associate Professor at Economics, IUPUI, at 6:20 pm EST on January 30, 2007
JBM has a valid point. The words “attach” and “trash” are loaded and are not backed up by the one quote from Smith. It is also silly to call “William Winkenwender Jr., assistant secretary of defense for health affairs” “a top Pentagon official”. It leads to reader to think of a big bad Pentagon going after a poor little researcher. It is bad writing regardless of whether or nor the author had a political motive.
BTW: Both Blimes and her co-author Joseph E. Stiglitz are form Clinton Adminstration officials. [http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/bio.cfm] The LA Time did not identify them as such.
Blimes and Stiglitz have every right to use their research for political ends. This is a legitimate part of the battle of ideas. I happen to agree with them. I think invading Iraq was about as smart as Hilter ’s invasion of Russia. But, let’s be clear, all of the players here in the big leagues and know what the how the game in played.
Mike, at 10:06 pm EST on January 30, 2007
Wow! “excessive injuries” in war. What a concept! How can you have excessive injuries in war when injuries are part and parcel of the warring process...unless it’s via incomepetence at the supply end? Or is “excessive injury” in war civilian injuries, which would put the total to well over half a million, though not one eligible for VA benefits.
I wonder whether Bilmes included psychological injury; I’ve not read her paper but from the sound of it, the answer is no. Why is the psychological injured of less import than the physical injured, I wonder...
Let us revisit Walt Whitman and Helen Keller on this issue.
Jimsecor, at 10:06 pm EST on January 30, 2007
Scott — a thousand respects. But this ..
” .. While she worked in the Clinton administration (rising to the level of assistant secretary of commerce), she said she viewed this project and her interest in these issues as “nonpartisan.”
.. should have been in one of the first three paragraphs — not at the bottom.
The reader should not have to read 400 words to find out someone’s political loyalty.
That only reinforces the Limbaugh theory of media bias.
L.L. Berry, at 10:06 pm EST on January 30, 2007
Higher education professionals (similar to other highly educated groups) have been proven to be a generally liberal population. I don’t have the cite handy but Lipset’s “Political Man” should confirm.
THUS, why are more than half of the posts on this message board giving conservative, and might i add anti-academic arguments? It seems unlikely. Furthermore, most right wing prattle on messageboards is awkwardly without substance, unlike the posts here. Finally, most of the uber-recalcitrant conservatives clinging to their posts in the academe aren’t all that comfortable with the webernets, interweb, or whatever the kids are calling this series of tubes these days.
This abnormality and my barely subtle hypothesis suggest we should study who is posting here. Can i request an IP referrer report on the origins of posted comments? We are specifically interested in the occurance rates of.gov IPs and anything out of Langly. Please try to filter out the AOL accounts. Although I’m going for tounge in cheek here, if you had access to the data it would be fun to look, no?
Fac Brat, at 1:45 pm EST on January 31, 2007
The pentagons ability to fudge data has become almost limitless. Time and time again they produce data that perposely underestimates the true costs of war. Jimsecor brigns up an espescially valid and important question. Does the pentagon or the lecturer take into account the psychological injuries that result from wartime environments? Is not shellshock or post traumatic stress syndrome considered an injury? Or what about medical costs that vets are required to pay for themselves. Im sure the actual dollar value is mind boggling.
Zachary Ligertwood, at 2:30 pm EST on January 31, 2007
Jimsecor chuckled about the notion of excessive injuries in war, but the post above him to which he referred actually discussed “excess injuries,” being those injuries to military personnel in Iraq in excess of the injuries to the same personnel that would have occurred in peacetime.
Jeff, at 10:05 pm EST on January 31, 2007
It is interesting that so many voices can be heard upset at Bilmes’s conclusions and suggestions. Clearly, she has hit a nerve among the PR managers with ties to the Pentagon and perhaps the Health Industry. They always reveal themselves by their recourse to ad hominem’s.
Sterling Bennett, at 5:45 am EST on February 1, 2007
I don’t think that what is wanted in this study is excess injuries. This is a study to evaluate the financial resources needed to care for those who are injured in Iraq or Afghanistan. If someone is injured in a car accident in Iraq, who would have been injured in an accident whereever he was....it doesn’t matter for these purposes. He still must be taken care of ,the same as if he had been shot.
melissa shutta, at 5:45 am EST on February 1, 2007
I share the same suspicions as “Fac Brat", I was very surprised to catch that right-wing stench on a few of those posts... you know, devoid of logical arguments, re-inforcing negative stereotypes of academics... did someone say “she worked for Clinton"? As if that automatically disqualifies her from performing a non-partisan study. They were numbers she was studying, afterall. And those numbers relate to the men and woman of the Armed Forces- injured in or out of combat, they’re injured nonetheless. These soldiers deserve every bit of care they need, so to attack a study that is intended to help the VA do just that is reprehensible. To try and discredit it, alter public info, and actually complain to Harvard about it is anathema to what these men and women are serving for in the first place. Remember what our country stands for trolls? Truth, justice, liberty? Wake up people! Smokescreens are what these posts appear to be, to throw us off the REAL story here- which is the fact that the Pentagon actually changed public information so it would better fit the rosier-than-it-really-is picture of Iraq they’d all like us to believe. I’ll even make the concession that the categories of wounded soldiers should be clearly explained up front. It doesn’t change the fact that it’s just one more disturbing scenario created by this nightmare of a president.
colinjames, Legislative Intern at WA State Senate/ The Evergreen State College, at 5:46 am EST on February 1, 2007
One thing I have learned during years of back and forths with conservatives: Many are SO willing to not let facts get in the way of their opinions. They just try to change the subject when confronted with a fact. They seem not to care about the truth. Nor does much of the media, obsessed as they are with how an issue will play politically. Give people the truth and they can figure things out.
Bill Dunn, at 6:01 am EST on February 1, 2007
It never ceases to amaze me how commentary will focus on partisanship and/or find excuses for an administration out of control. Absent dialogue about an administration willing to mislead the public by omitting vital information — in this case regarding the true costs of war — puts their credibility in question while destroying public trust. Yet, posts contained accusations of partisanship without considering what it means; whether it is a pattern; and moreover whether we should we be concerned, worries me.
Further it is astounding many simply ignored Bilme’s source of information came directly from the Veteran’s Affairs Department’s and the DoD’s web sites. Never mind out of the blue on the 10 january 2007, and without explanation, the 50,500 plus injuries plummeted to 22,000. Doesn’t that send a red flag?
So which number is correct?
It depends on the definition of “wounded.” If injuries were inflicted by the enemy during combat in a hostile environment the smaller number applies. Otherwise including injuries from accidents, vehicle crashes (helicopters, cars, tanks), mental illness, dis_ease and other health related problems the larger number applies. Hence the smaller number reflects a different story — albeit a distorted one for the public.
Rummy was known to do similar while Secretary of Defense concerning an actual count of US war-related deaths. As i understand it, unless a soldier died on the field engaged in combat is his/her death counted. Once air-lifted out of the war zone, should death occur as a result from injuries during or after or even while being flown to other locations is not recorded as part of the war. I imagine Gates follows suit.
Apparently neither the Pentagon nor the DoD believe the public ought to be privy to accurate information. Although having maintained this practice since day one it becomes more apparent — as support dwindled to the 20% range — hiding numbers, costs and other vital information from the public became that much more important. They can little afford to pursue an unpopular agenda so anything that might further erode support must be hidden from public view. Whatever it takes, they mistakenly believe, necessitates intentional skewing numbers, omitting facts, hiding vital information to prevent further public scrutiny whose support is currently in free-fall.
Looking thru the same lens as the administration, an economic issue — or any issue for that matter — threatening their agenda is a political issue.
The public is better served with full disclosure and accurate information. Otherwise drawing from partial information false and misleading impressions are made. Over budgets costs might result in short-changing vets health care. An economic analysis specifically designed for planning a budget requires reporting real-costs. What happens when money designated for health care cannot meet the needs for tens of thousands of vets?
Prioritizing political agendas put our soldiers at risk while doing little to inspire public confidence or trust in what they say or do. As a result it makes Americans vulnerable regardless whether republican or democrat or liberal or conservative. We are first and foremost, human beings. We need an open transparent government and dialogue rooted in truth. Let’s find common ground to do so otherwise we all lose.
serena1313, at 6:51 am EST on February 1, 2007
While that Drs Blimes & Stiglitz may have overestimated some costs (some sickness and injuries are small enough not to require further treatment) and perhaps way underestimated others (400,000 pending claims plus how many solved, or not filed yet? Or 44% filing at least some disability in a short “easy” Gulf War 1?)it is pretty clear that basing estimates on 200K injured is pure fantasy.
What is beyond the purview of their research is the reaction to it, by the Pentagon, and many in these comments.
For more detailed research in that aspect the work done by Dr. Robert Altemeyer at the University of Manitoba is perhaps more edifying.
Free Dem, at 7:50 am EST on February 1, 2007
IMHO, analysis should be about cold, hard objectivity. The Republican MD who gives out needles to prevent AIDS. The Democrat who admits the overwhelming influence of certain interest groups on her party.
These traits of cold, hard objectivity are so totally lacking in soft-side academia, it is roll-on-the-floor laughable.
Such as ” .. did someone say “she worked for Clinton” .. as if that automatically disqualifies her from performing a non-partisan study” from ” .. Legislative Intern at WA State Senate/ The Evergreen State College.”
Anyone want to wager a year’s pay, what party that brilliant analysis came from? Of course not — who wants to lose a year’s pay?
Intern would like everyone to roll over and ape his political party’s speechifying. Right — and Rosie O’Donnell will be getting Xmas cards from Donald Trump.
Keep dreamin’ — doing a good job at that.
B.D., at 6:05 pm EST on February 1, 2007
I just completed Linda’s budgeting course at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. Her characterization of her report as “dry” is typical of her self-effacing style for someone with such passion for budgeting work. Her research is mathematically straightforward and yes, includes assumptions that are a necessary for a future projection.
Where there are costs she missed or inflated, we absolutely should adjust the report. No one should take this report as 100% fact — I didn’t see her with a crystal ball in class. The challenge for us is to use this work CONSTRUCTIVELY. By turning it into a political standoff, an ‘all-or-nothing’ referendum on the suitability of Linda to produce this research, or of the exact numbers themselves, we miss two important points.
First, political folks are hurt by bad news, and it is illogical to expect them to weaken their position. Certainly, a Democratic administration would be equally dismayed. Second, costs can be quantified scientifically even when they’re as abstract as health costs for vets.
Next time we plan a military action, could this work be used to better estimate its true costs? The current system of estimation hasn’t been terribly good; rounded-off billions? We can do better.
BudgetGuy, at 9:45 pm EST on February 1, 2007
I agree with many of the comments here.
One of the best books covering the sad reality of the US media is the book “No Questions Asked : News Coverage since 9/11″ by Lisa Finnegan
http://www.noquestionasked.org
With the foreword of Norman Solomon. She explains, page after page, how US media became a mouth piece of the George Bush’s administration, and instead of reporting and questioning the what was said by the officials, they blow up the lies and miss-information. It has 100s of quotes from NYT, WP, CNN, ABC, NBC, Fox and all other news media in the US.
I really enjoyed reading it (I ordered it to my local library so that other people will also have access to it).
/Karl
KarlK, at 4:35 am EST on February 2, 2007
” .. Next time we plan a military action, could this work be used to better estimate its true costs?”
Gee, with that kind of thinking, why don’t we evacuate San Francisco now? Odds say, there will more devasting earthquakes in the 20 years, with billions in losses. Would that be prudent? And what about Miami?
And why is the U.S. spending billions, rebuilding a city that is below sea-level, by the ocean, in a hurricane zone? Does that make sense?
And, oh yes — Bush was an idiot for not anticipating 9/11. A matter Clintonites conveniently never discuss. regarding their quality work about OBL.
C. Bigsby, at 8:35 am EST on February 2, 2007
It would appear that the administration, when claims ("we support the troops") are negated by data (the total cost of caring for injured veterans), the answer is to change the data, and to change the subject. Whether the vets were injured in battle or otherwise, the cost of operating the system remains the same, and re-defining the data to include only battle injuries doesn’t reduce the costs of treating those who were injured in training accidents, friendly fire, etc. I’d grade that kind of thinking with an F.
Some of your correspondents seem to want to change the subject to 9/11, the Clinton administration, Hurricane Katrina, and San Francisco, but that is reminscent of the Soviets responding to revelations of their nastiness with “But what about the lynchings in the South?”
etaoin shrdlu, at 4:10 pm EST on February 20, 2007
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Linda Bilmes
Pentagon criticism is a badge of honor for Linda Bilmes.
Sossity, at 6:10 pm EDT on March 16, 2008